Pre-tourney Rankings
Conference USA
2012-13


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
33 Memphis 100.0%   5   30 - 4 16 - 0 30 - 4 16 - 0 +11.6      +4.1 66 +7.5 17 74.8 38 +15.2 14 +20.5 1
59 Southern Miss 24.2%   23 - 9 12 - 4 23 - 9 12 - 4 +8.2      +5.7 48 +2.5 100 65.4 221 +8.4 57 +7.6 2
110 UTEP 0.0%   18 - 14 10 - 6 18 - 14 10 - 6 +3.9      +0.6 157 +3.3 88 58.7 324 +3.6 118 +3.1 5
134 Central Florida 0.0%   18 - 11 9 - 7 18 - 11 9 - 7 +2.2      +2.2 117 0.0 172 68.2 154 +4.3 106 +3.4 3
156 Tulane 0.0%   18 - 14 6 - 10 18 - 14 6 - 10 +0.6      +3.0 98 -2.4 242 65.3 222 -0.3 176 -3.6 10
158 East Carolina 0.0%   14 - 12 9 - 7 14 - 12 9 - 7 +0.5      +3.9 71 -3.4 268 72.6 66 +1.6 149 +3.2 4
167 UAB 0.0%   15 - 17 7 - 9 15 - 17 7 - 9 0.0      -1.2 206 +1.2 134 78.6 14 +0.3 165 +0.3 6
175 Tulsa 0.0%   16 - 15 8 - 8 16 - 15 8 - 8 -0.5      -2.4 237 +1.9 117 71.9 77 +0.8 159 +0.2 7
180 Houston 0.0%   18 - 12 7 - 9 18 - 12 7 - 9 -0.7      +4.1 67 -4.8 297 76.1 29 -0.8 184 -1.6 9
181 SMU 0.0%   14 - 17 5 - 11 14 - 17 5 - 11 -0.9      -1.6 216 +0.7 147 63.6 259 -2.2 199 -4.5 11
224 Marshall 0.0%   12 - 19 6 - 10 12 - 19 6 - 10 -3.5      -0.8 186 -2.8 252 71.8 79 -2.8 213 -1.0 8
321 Rice 0.0%   4 - 25 1 - 15 4 - 25 1 - 15 -10.9      -3.6 268 -7.2 331 60.7 299 -12.7 326 -13.7 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Memphis 1.0 100.0
Southern Miss 2.0 100.0
UTEP 3.0 100.0
Central Florida 4.0 100.0
Tulane 9.0 100.0
East Carolina 4.0 100.0
UAB 7.0 100.0
Tulsa 6.0 100.0
Houston 7.0 100.0
SMU 11.0 100.0
Marshall 9.0 100.0
Rice 12.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Memphis 16 - 0 100.0
Southern Miss 12 - 4 100.0
UTEP 10 - 6 100.0
Central Florida 9 - 7 100.0
Tulane 6 - 10 100.0
East Carolina 9 - 7 100.0
UAB 7 - 9 100.0
Tulsa 8 - 8 100.0
Houston 7 - 9 100.0
SMU 5 - 11 100.0
Marshall 6 - 10 100.0
Rice 1 - 15 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Memphis 100.0% 100.0
Southern Miss
UTEP
Central Florida
Tulane
East Carolina
UAB
Tulsa
Houston
SMU
Marshall
Rice


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Memphis 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 5   0.1 0.3 8.8 33.8 38.6 16.2 2.1 0.1
Southern Miss 24.2% 0.0% 24.2% 0.0 0.7 20.7 2.7 0.0 75.8 24.2%
UTEP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Central Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Tulane 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
East Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
UAB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Tulsa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Houston 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
SMU 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Marshall 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Rice 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Memphis 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 62.7% 28.2% 9.4% 3.1% 1.0% 0.3%
Southern Miss 24.2% 23.6% 11.4% 3.6% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SMU 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.2 75.8 24.2
1st Round 100.0% 1.1 88.6 11.4
2nd Round 64.2% 0.7 35.8 62.2 2.0
Sweet Sixteen 29.0% 0.3 71.0 28.8 0.3
Elite Eight 9.6% 0.1 90.4 9.6 0.0
Final Four 3.1% 0.0 96.9 3.1
Final Game 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0
Champion 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3